By Mohammad Rasoul Kailani
With every passing decade of the illegal occupation, the hope of a free Palestine seems to die out a little. This seems to have especially been the case in 2020, a bad year in every regard, but particularly so for the Palestinian cause. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu seemed very intent on annexing large, fertile portions of the West Bank, in conjunction with a collection of Arab regimes normalizing relations with an increasingly hostile Israel. To many, this is a sign that the quest for Palestinian liberation is merely a flight of imagination, however, one can look at it as a cry of desperation from the Zionists. In fact, one can argue all these bold moves are in preparation for Israel losing their upper hand in the conflict. The truth is that Israel is experiencing a potential loss of support from key allies, internal instability and the risk of demographic decline, which will therefore require that Israel give in to real concessions.
- There are no friends, only moments of friendship
The dominant trend in countries allied with Israel is one of increased rejection of its infractions of international law. A prime example of this is the situation in the United States, Israel’s key backer and true lifeline. In previous decades, the American public was infatuated with the Zionist project, so when the American government would back Israel through every single instance of land theft, there was no real domestic opposition. But with every passing year and the rise of a more socially conscious generation, an objection to Israel within the United States is coming about. In 2015, 47% of Americans considered Israel as an ally, with the number dropping to 42% by 2017. The most recent statistics on the matter, collected in 2019, showed that the number has fallen to 38%.
A drop of nine percent in four years is quite a significant development. At the moment, this is not changing much on the ground. President Biden is an ardent Zionist, the Israeli lobbies have a tight grip on D.C. and the “Boomer” generation that has always assisted Israel still runs the country. However, the following trend means that within two decades, public support for Israel in America would be so low that the United States could not justify the $3.8 billion in aid granted to Israel annually. Furthemore, the generation that backs Israel with such rigor is declining demographically, whilst the percentage of support amongst Millennials and Generation Z does not exceed 30%. In the future, it will be these generations and their ideas that will govern America, a generation that is not too favourable of the Zionist project. Presently, congresswomen popular with young voters such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib are vehemently opposed to the Israeli government’s policies in the West Bank. The latter two have been banned from visiting Israel, while Ocasio-Cortez has refused to visit when a trip was offered to members of Congress. As more young people reach voting age and get politically active, we will have more AOCs, Ilhan Omars and Rashida Tlaibs, and eventually, there may be bills passed in the House condemning settlements instead of bills funding them.
The reasoning for a rising condemnation of the occupation can be attributed to the younger segment of American Society’s great concern for human rights. In particular, the Black Lives Matter movement has become a great part of public discourse in this past year, and they too have supported the Palestinian cause. When the movement first arose at the Ferguson protests in 2014, demonstrators chanted “from Ferguson to Palestine, occupation is a crime!’ The popularity of this movement is bound to attract American youth to support other movements seeking greater rights for oppressed people. This description perfectly applies to the movement for Palestinian self-determination. Due to the fact that the United States can not always remain Israel’s bodyguard, President Netanyahu and his government have been reaching out to far right governments across the world, from Hungary to Brazil, which is even worse for their public relations campaign in the Western World. They know that only governments that were also built up on hate will support them, so as the American nation leans more towards human rights and respect for diversity, Israel can never do anything as defiant and arrogant as what they have been doing in recent years.
#2 : Annual elections and a broken Knesset
When discussing geopolitics, one often hears of the “divide and conquer strategy”. But how can Israel conquer anything if it is constantly dividing itself? Israel, despite its tendency to push for the unity of one identity at the expense of others, has proven to be one of the most divided countries in the Developed World. In two years, there have been three elections to determine who will lead the state, with all of them resulting in no majority, followed by the scheduling of another one. In fact, another election is due for this March. There are four major coalitions in Israel’s legislative assembly, none of which hold a majority of 61 seats (the largest is Likud, with 36.) Asides from a lack of societal cohesion, a divided government means that it will become too difficult to maintain the occupation. For example, the new elections were called because the new government could not successfully agree on the state budget. Military operations cost money, so if Israel can not decide where to allocate finances and resources, the strength of Israeli forces in the West Bank is compromised.
The current composition of the Israeli Knesset. The largest group has 36 seats, while the Yesh Atid-Telem Alliance have 15, and the Blue and White Alliance have 13 seats. Interestingly, the Arab “Joint List” have 15 seats, making them a force to be reckoned with in what is a traditionally Jewish institution.
There is a large lack of consensus on the approach to the conflict within Israeli circles of power. The Yesh Atid-Telem alliance wants a two state solution, the Blue and White alliance wants to reenter negotiations with Palestine, but their conditions are difficult to meet (e.g no Palestinian military). This all pales in comparison to Netanyahu’s Likud party and their determination to annex every piece of territory they possibly can. A 2011 poll found that more Israelis were disturbed with their economic situation (80%) than their situation in regards to international conflict (71%). Based on this, in order to win the approval of the masses, the Israeli government needs to put money into social programs rather than military ones. It is a double edged sword; put more money into the occupation, to the dissatisfaction of the Israeli public, or raise Israel’s economic situation and give their people better lives, potentially at the cost of the West Bank. The choice is clear for the Israeli government, take care of their constituents and head back to the negotiating table.
Another remarkable trend is that while Jewish Israel has been split into factions, Arab Israel is more united than ever. Even though the Arabs within the 1967 borders are split along partisan lines, the Arabs of ‘48 have combined to form a coalition that now constitutes all Arab parties in the State of Israel. If there is any hope in democracy, it could be the case that Israel may have to make more concessions to the Palestinain side. There has been a consistent trend of Arab parties gaining seats, which shows that Palestine’s strength lies in numbers. This brings us to the next point.
#3 : Jewish Israel’s demographic dilemma
Israel uses its finances and technology to help enforce the occupation, but without manpower, this becomes an impossible task. Although founded as a Jewish state, it is probable that this will not be the case in the future, mathematically speaking. One factor to consider is the growth rates of both populations. The annual growth rate of the Muslim Israeli population (who constitute 85% of the Israeli Arab population) is 2.2%, which is outnumber the Jewish growth rate of 1.8%. In the State of Palestine, this goes up to 2.4%. Based on this, population projections typically have the demographic balance of what was once called Mandatory Palestine shifting towards an Arab majority. This fact is not lost on the Jewish Israeli population, who’s birth rate is the highest in the developed world, 3.1 children per family compared to an average of 1.7 in the rest of that category. The “war of the womb” is viewed as a threat to the Zionist project, which makes Jewish Israelis feel obliged to maintain larger families. But with this, you have a double edged sword.
Professor Sergio DellaPergola is a demographer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem who has given a pessimistic and optimistic estimate of Israel’s population in 2050. One is that it reaches 12.5 million, with approximately 9.5 million Jews and 3 million Arabs. Given that the United Nations estimates that there will be 9.5 million residents of the Palestinian State in 2050, this would give Arabs a clear majority in the Holy Land, which would make maintaining the occupation more difficult. It would also make Israel’s international image worse, as this makes the comparison with South Africa’s infamous Apartheid far stronger. The “optimistic” estimate involves the estimate for the number of Israeli Arabs rising at the same rate, but the Jewish population soaring to 12 or 12.5 million. Now, Israel still has the manpower to consistently send troops to the West Bank, but it would put a great financial strain on the nation. Israel, although a country with a high standard of living and better off than their neighbours, has a myriad of social and economic problems. It is for this reason that 37% of Israelis have signified that they would consider leaving the country. Given that Israel is experiencing many internal problems with 8.65 million people within its borders, it follows that it would not be able to keep funding the occupation whilst taking care of 15 million citizens.
Surely the Israeli public will be disenfranchised with their country’s expansionist policies if it diverts resources from housing and welfare, as well as continuing to divide the country along political lines. These issues already take precedent in the eyes of the Israeli public, a group that is more concerned with the war of the womb than a potential security threat from its borders. As the country realizes that there is no active threat on its frontier, they will see past the “all countries want to destroy Israel!” piece of propaganda. Given that the rise in birth rates indicates a fear of Israel losing its Jewish character, but it would no longer be economically viable to occupy the West Bank, Israel may start becoming more lenient to the two state solution, a notion already fairly popular amongst Palestinians. There will come a point where the illegal military control in the West Bank will remain detrimental to Palestine and become detrimental to Israel. Going forward, the solution can only lie at the negotiating table.
To conclude…
I am not guaranteeing that things will get better. In fact, it may get worse first. The current trends of pushing for West Bank annexation (previously a rare occurrence), Israel openly aligning themselves with quasi-fascist governments and Netanyahu practically nagging the United States for more aid signify that Israel is attempting to fulfill every possible demand at the moment, because they know that in the future, further demands will be impossible. Western democracies will no longer pamper the small country with aid, the nation’s legislative house can not agree on anything and under any reasonable estimate, Israel will either have too many or too little people to enforce the occupation.
Amongst the activists and laymen that I have spoken to, a sense of hopelessness dominates the conversation about the Palestinian cause. This is quite reasonable, but I feel as though people think in a short term manner rather than a long term manner. But one should look ahead, for this has been a long term conflict. At the same time, the representatives and rulers of Palestine can not sit around and wait for Israel to cave in to some kind of settlement (a peace agreement, not an illegal colony). Palestine’s government is still nowhere near as strong as Israel’s, it does not make as much of an effort in regards to public relations, is severely divided and has a tendency to not act on favourable U.N. and court rulings. The Balkanization of the Palestinain government has to stop for measurable progress to be made. At the end of the day, the data shows that Israel, although powerful, is not invincible, so with the right amount of mobilization, more favourable terms can be agreed upon. After all, David did beat Goliath.
Sources :
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-calls-4th-election-in-2-years-as-netanyahu-gantz-coalition-collapses/
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-poll-shows-support-for-israel-plummeting-among-u-s-liberals-millennials-and-women-1.6594182
https://www.haaretz.com/1.5033571?lts=1611514897846
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2018/1214/Israel-booms-with-babies-as-developed-world-s-birth-rates-plummet.-Here-s-why
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4702945,00.html
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/21243
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2018/1214/Israel-booms-with-babies-as-developed-world-s-birth-rates-plummet.-Here-s-why
https://www.populationpyramid.net/israel/2050/
https://news.un.org/en/story/2016/12/548332-population-growth-occupied-palestinian-territory-drive-demand-housing-services#:~:text=Fertility%20rates%20are%20twice%20the,to%209.5%20million%20by%202050.
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/lapid-peace-plan-is-serious-no-reason-to-oppose-it-593332
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Mohammad Rasoul Kailani is a 17 year old Arab-Canadian writer and the editor of 9awtak.com’s English section. Although interested in many topics, his primary focus is on Middle Eastern and Arab affairs.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of 9awtak.com, its staff, or other contributors.
